From Zero to FI

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The Best of Intentions: Why I Worry About The Realities of the Next Recession (For Myself) 😟

Flash back to 2009. Barack Obama had just become President of the United States, in part because he seemed like the best person to deal with a crushing recession that saw the loss of 8.7 million U.S. jobs. It was an incredibly scary time for many Americans: a loss of income, homes, and for some the dignity of working an honest day’s labor.

For me, it was just a year after I graduated from college. Luckily, I had a job, a steady income, and for the first time in my entire life, started to invest in the stock market. As many people were racking up huge market losses, I was getting the deal of the decade… cheap stock that had nowhere else to go but up.

Eleven years later, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have closed at record high levels. The unemployment rate is at a near record low.

For many, they would look at my situation and say that I’ve had quite a bit of good luck. I would absolutely agree with them! But everything that’s happened also gives me significant pause.

Ask any skilled, successful, seasoned investor for important qualities or behaviors that aided in their success, and you’ll hear one refrain over and over again: check your emotions at the door, and don’t panic when the market swings into the red.

I’m not seasoned. I’ve only invested through the times when markets were rocketing up into the stratosphere. Each time I’ve opened my account statements, all I see is green (both literally and figuratively).

I know another market decline is in the future (nobody knows when, but it’s inevitable). My head knows that I need to just weather the storm and continue investing. In fact, since I’m still relatively young, a market decline now would actually be a long term boon, my purchasing power increases in proportion to the decline.

I’m not tested. It’s one thing to know how you are supposed to handle a situation. It’s another to actually live through the situation. Perhaps my emotions will get the better of me. Perhaps I’ll get cold feet and make decisions that are completely unthinkable right now.

And I’m not the only one that is going to be tested soon. Anyone that started investing in 2008 or later is in a similar boat… we are all eventually destined to ride untested into what may feel like a bottomless abyss.

To add to the concern, the last decade has seen an explosion in roboinvestor apps that individuals can use to directly pump money into markets. Historically, typical investors will have an advisor to “talk them off the ledge”. At best, the apps may pop up a message warning some from selling and realizing large losses. I’m skeptical that’s truly a replacement for talking to a real person with a heartbeat.

So to end, let me send a message into the future. Markets will recover. If you invested wisely, your time horizon is long enough that you can regain your money. The best thing you can do is to stay the course, and even invest more if possible. Let cooler heads prevail.